THE JOB OUTLOOK IN BRIEF 1994-2005

"There is nothing permanent except change." Even though this was an observation of the ancient Greek Heraclitus, it aptly describes the second half of the 20th century as well. Consumer demand, technology, and business practices are constantly evolving.

Occupations that once offered solid careers are in decline, while positions once unheard of are now among the fastest growing. In today's marketplace, it is increasingly important for people who are planning their careers to be aware of what occupations will be in demand in the future. The $5.3-trillion economy of 1994 is projected to reach $6.4 to $7.4 trillion by 2005. Employment is expected to reach 144.7 million, an increase of 14 percent, or 17.7 million jobs, above the 1994 level.

The next few pages discuss factors that affect an occupation's employment outlook, describe the assumptions used in making the projections, and point out general trends.

Why Employment Changes

The number of workers employed in any occupation depends in large part on the demand for the goods or services provided by those workers. Over the last decade or so, for example, increased use of computers by businesses, schools, scientific organizations, and government agencies has contributed to large increases in the number of systems analysts, programmers, and computer repairers. However, even if the demand rises for goods and services provided by a group of workers, employment may not increase at all or may increase more slowly than demand because of changes in the way goods are produced and services are provided. In fact, some changes in technology and business practices cause employment to decline. For example, while the volume of paperwork is expected to increase dramatically, the employment of typists and word processors will probably fall. This reflects the growing use of word processing equipment that increases productivity and permits other office workers to do more of their own typing. Using information on the demand for goods and services, advances in technology, changes in business practices, and the occupational composition of industries, economists at BLS have developed three sets of projections of the economy in 2005. Each set was developed in light of a series of economic assumptions about the future. The rate of change for the labor force, output, productivity, inflation, unemployment, and other factors were varied in developing each set. Referred to as the low-, moderate-, and high-growth projections, or scenarios, each provides a different employment estimate for most occupations. The scenarios should not be viewed as the bounds of employment growth but as illustrations of what might happen under different conditions. All the data in the "Brief" come from the moderate-growth projections.

Any projection of employment growth is clouded by uncertainty. Unforeseen changes in technology or the balance of trade or major international political upheavals could radically alter future employment for individual occupations.

Between 1994 and 2005, employment will rise to 144.7 million from 127.0 million. This section gives a brief overview of projected employment change. It focuses on the following clusters of occupations based on the Federal Government's Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system:

Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. Professional specialty occupations, Technicians and related support occupations, Marketing and sales occupations, Administrative support occupations including clerical, Service occupations, Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations, Mechanics, installers, and repairers, Construction trades occupations, Production occupations, Transportation and material moving occupations, Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers.

Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. Workers in executive, administrative, and managerial occupations establish policies, make plans, determine staffing requirements, and direct the activities of businesses, government agencies, and other organizations. This group includes managerial and administrative workers, such as financial managers, purchasers and buyers, education administrators, funeral directors, food service and hotel managers, and property and real estate managers. It also includes management support occupations that provide technical assistance to managers. Some examples include accountant and auditor, budget analyst, loan officer, purchasing agent, and underwriter.

Overall, employment of executive, administrative, and managerial occupations is expected to grow about as fast as the average for all occupations. However, because these workers are employed throughout the economy, differences in the rate of expansion for individual industries will produce varying rates of employment change for particular kinds of managers and support workers. For example, employment of health services managers will grow much faster than average, whereas industrial production managers are expected to decline.

Due to the large amount of competition for these jobs, job seekers with previous work experience, specialized training, or graduate study have a definite advantage. Computer skills will continue to be an asset as more managers rely on computerized information systems to help direct their organizations.

Professional specialty occupations. Professional workers provide an array of services, conduct research, and are employed in a variety of industries. This group includes engineers; architects and surveyors; computer, mathematical, and operations research occupations; life, physical, and social scientists; lawyers and judges; social, recreational, and religious workers; teachers, librarians, and counselors; health diagnosing, assessment, and treating occupations; and communications, visual arts, and performing arts occupations.

As a whole, this group is expected to grow faster than any other major occupational group and to increase its share of total employment significantly by 2005. This group also is projected to add the largest number of jobs of any occupational group in the 1994-2005 period. However, growth rates for individual occupations are as diverse as the jobs these workers perform. Because most new jobs will be in the education, business, and health services industries, occupations such as physical therapist, human services worker, operations research analyst, and computer scientist and systems analyst are expected to grow much faster than average. Others, such as meteorologists, mining and nuclear engineers, and dentists should grow more slowly than average.

Technicians and related support occupations. These workers program and operate technical equipment and assist engineers, scientists, physicians, and other professional workers. This group includes health technologists and technicians, engineering and science technicians, computer programmers, aircraft pilots, air traffic controllers, paralegal, broadcast technicians, and library technicians.

Although overall employment is expected to grow about as fast as the average, changes in technology, demographics, and ways of conducting business will cause some of these occupations to grow faster than others. This group includes paralegal, one of the fastest growing occupations in the economy. Its growth will result in part from the increasing reliance of lawyers on these workers. Increased demand for health services from a growing and aging population will spur growth for radiological technologists, medical record technicians, surgical technologists, and electroneurodiagnostic technologists. In fact, 7 of every 10 new jobs for technicians will be for health technologists and technicians. Employment growth in other occupations in this group will be limited. For example, employment of drafters should show little change, and broadcast technicians should decline due to laborsaving devices and technological advances.

Marketing and sales occupations. Workers in this group sell goods and services, purchase commodities and property for resale, and stimulate consumer interest. This group includes cashiers; counter and rental clerks; insurance agents and brokers; manufacturers' and wholesale sales representatives; real estate agents, brokers, and appraisers; retail sales workers; financial services sales representatives; and travel agents.

Employment is expected to grow as fast as average because of the increased demand for financial, travel, and other services. However, the rate of growth should be slower than over the previous 11 years because these workers are concentrated in wholesale and retail trade, an industry which will grow more slowly than in the past.

A large number of part-time and full-time positions are expected to be available for cashiers and retail trade sales workers due to employment growth and, more importantly, the large size and high turnover of these occupations. Higher paying sales occupations, such as securities and financial services sales worker, are more competitive than retail sales occupations. Job opportunities will be best for well-trained, personable, and ambitious people who enjoy selling.

Administrative support occupations including clerical. Workers in this group prepare and record memos, letters, and reports; collect accounts; gather and distribute information; operate office machines; and handle other administrative tasks. The group includes such occupations as adjuster, investigator, and collector in the insurance industry; computer and communications equipment operator; information clerk; postal clerk and mail carrier; secretary; bank teller; and typist, word processor, and data entry key person.

This occupational group will continue to employ the largest number of workers, although little change in employment is expected. As a result, these occupations will decline as a proportion of total employment by 2005. Despite the tremendous increase expected in the volume of clerical tasks to be done, increased automation and other technological changes will cause a decline in such occupations as typist, word processor, and data entry key punch; bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerk; and telephone operator. In contrast, the occupation of teacher aide should grow much faster than average as schools increase their use of these workers. Receptionists and information clerks are expected to experience faster than average growth because these workers are concentrated in rapidly growing industries.

Because many administrative support occupations are large and have relatively high turnover, opportunities should be plentiful for full- and part-time jobs, even in slow growing occupations.

Service occupations. This group includes a wide range of workers in four subgroups: Protective; food and beverage preparation; health; and personal, private household, and cleaning and building services. The group includes protective service occupations such as firefighter, police officer, detective, and guard; food preparation occupations such as chef, cook, baker, bartender, and waiter; health service occupations such as dental assistant and occupational and physical therapy assistant; and personal service occupations such as flight attendant, home health aide, cosmetologist, and child-care worker.

These occupations, as a group, are expected to grow faster than average because of a growing population and economy. Higher personal incomes and increased leisure time will spur demand for many different types of services.

Because of growing concern over crime, the employment of police, detectives, and special agents is expected to rise faster than average and that of guards much faster than average. As the number of prisoners and correctional facilities increases, more correctional officers also will be needed. Average employment growth is expected for firefighters as the Nation's population grows and fire and rescue needs increase.

Full- and part-time jobs will be plentiful for food preparation and service workers due to the large size, high turnover, and overall average employment growth of this group.

Among health services occupations, medical assistant-one of the fastest growing occupations in the economy-and nursing aide, orderly, and attendant will grow much faster than average, in response to the aging population and expanding health care industry.

Growth in personal service, cleaning, and private household workers will vary widely. Homemaker-home health aide should be one of the fastest growing occupations, in part because of the substantial increase in the elderly population. Private household workers, on the other hand, will decline rapidly due to the shift from home to institutional child care.

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations. Workers in these occupations cultivate plants, breed and raise animals, and catch fish. Some occupations include farm operator, fisher, hunter, and trapper; gardener and groundskeeper; and forest and conservation worker.

Although demand for food, fiber, and wood is expected to increase as the world's population grows, the use of more productive farming and forestry methods and the consolidation of small farms are expected to contribute to employment declines in most of these occupations. The employment of farmers is expected to decline sharply, reflecting greater productivity; on the other hand, the need for skilled lawn service managers should result in faster than average growth.

Mechanics, installers, and repairers. Workers in this group adjust, maintain, and repair automobiles, industrial equipment, computers, and many other types of machinery. Occupations include electronic equipment repairer, aircraft, automotive, and motorcycle mechanic; millwright; musical instrument repairer; rigger; and watchmaker.

Average overall growth is expected due to the continued importance of mechanical and electronic equipment throughout the economy, but projections vary by occupation. Data processing equipment repairer is expected to be the fastest growing occupation in this group, reflecting the increased use of these machines. In sharp contrast, communications equipment mechanic, installer, and repairer and telephone installer and repairer are expected to decline in employment due to laborsaving advances.

Construction trades occupations. Workers in this group construct, alter, and maintain buildings and other structures. Occupations include carpenter, electrician, roofer, drywall worker, carpet installer, and plumber.

Virtually all of the new jobs will be in construction. An increase in the number of households and industrial plants, the desire to alter or modernize existing structures, and the need to maintain and repair highways, drains, and bridges will result in average employment growth in construction. Because the construction industry is sensitive to fluctuations in the Nation's economy, employment in construction occupations varies from year to year. Many construction workers become unemployed during downturns in construction activity.

Production occupations. These workers set up, adjust, operate, and tend machinery and use hand tools and hand-held power tools to make goods and assemble products. Occupations include blue-collar worker supervisor, printing press operator, precision assembler, and stationary engineer.

Increases in imports, overseas production, and automation-including robotics and advanced computer techniques-will result in little change in overall employment. However, growth is expected for electronic pagination systems workers, cabinetmakers and bench carpenters, wood machinists, and water treatment plant operators.

Many production occupations are sensitive to fluctuations in the business cycle and competition from imports. When factory orders decline, workers face shortened workweeks, layoffs, and plant closings.

Transportation and material moving occupations. Operating the equipment used to move people and materials is the principle activity of workers in this group. Occupations include bus driver, rail and water transportation worker, subway and streetcar operator, and truck driver. Overall employment is expected to grow about as fast as average, but prospects vary by occupation. Two occupations will grow faster than average: Subway operator, as cities build new systems and expand existing ones; and taxi driver and chauffeur, as demand grows for transportation services. School bus driver and truck driver are expected to grow as fast as the average, but water transportation worker will change little. Slower than average growth is expected in the employment of material moving equipment operators because of the increased use of automated material handling systems.

Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers. These workers perform routine tasks and assist skilled workers. Some of these workers are helpers in construction trades, parking lot attendants, and service station attendants.

Overall employment is expected to grow about as fast as the average for all occupations, although some occupations, such as machine feeder, will decline due to automation. Many opportunities will arise from the need to replace workers who leave these occupations because turnover is very high. However, economic turndowns may substantially lower the number of openings, particularly for construction laborer and other occupations in industries that are highly sensitive to changes in the economy.

"The Job Outlook in Brief" provides thumbnail sketches of employment data for each occupation in the Occupational Outlook Handbook, 1996-97 edition. on which it is based. Nearly all employment estimates are from the BLS industry-occupation matrix. Employment growth rates are compared to the average for all occupations.

Assessing the degree of competition is difficult, although it can be done with some accuracy for occupations with lengthy training and strict entry requirements. However, because most occupations have several routes of entry and flexible requirements, the potential supply of workers is difficult to measure. For many occupations, therefore, no description of job opportunities or competition is given. When given, the description of the relationship between supply and demand is based on information obtained from technical journals and other relevant literature, interviews with occupational experts, historical data, and the judgment of the analyst who studied the occupation.

Growth in employment is only one source of job openings. In fact, BLS projects that 63 percent of all job openings over the 1994-2005 period will arise because of the need to replace workers who transfer to other occupations or leave the labor force. As a result, even occupations with slower than average growth may offer many jobs for new workers; this is especially true of large occupations.

Beyond the "Brief"

"The Job Outlook in Brief" is only a starting point for the exploration of economic projections or careers. The projections in it were produced by BLS as part of its employment projections program, which develops new sets of projections every 2 years. Besides occupational employment, BLS also projects industry employment, industry outlook, labor force activity, and numerous components of the gross domestic product. This information is available in a variety of publications designed to meet different needs.

Employment Outlook: 1994-2005 provides additional highlights and details on BLS projections, a discussion of industries and occupations generating the largest portion of projected job growth, implications of employment growth on education and training requirements, and the implication of growth on the quality of jobs as measured by earnings.

"The Job Outlook in Brief" provides information in a format that allows easy comparison of job prospects in different fields. But employment prospects are not the only consideration when choosing a certain career; matching your goals and abilities to the work done on the job and the education required is another important part of choosing a career. Where you want to live and how much money you want to earn also are important. Information like this appears in the Handbook and the Occupational Outlook Quarterly.

The Handbook has been published for 50 years. It contains more about the outlook for each of the occupations in the "Brief," as well as information about the nature of the work, training and personal qualifications, earnings, and other subjects. Originally published in the Fall 1992 OOQ, "Matching Yourself With the World of Work in 1992" is a 20-page, tabular presentation similar in format to the "Brief." Rather than outlook, it highlights significant job characteristics, including educational level required, working conditions, and interaction with data, people, and things.

Additional information on job growth is also available from State job service offices. The outlook for many occupations varies considerably among local job markets. For example, sections of the country with slow population growth have less need for elementary school teachers than regions with high growth. State job service offices, listed in the State Government section of local telephone directories, can provide information on local labor market conditions. Also, see the section on "Sources of Career Information" in the Handbook.

Ordering Information

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Phone (312) 353-1880

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